BC copper fluctuates and closes lower, with the US Fed meeting attracting attention [SMM BC copper commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract opened at 70,070 yuan/mt and closed in the red. During the night session, the center of the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract gradually moved up, touching an intraday high of 70,400 yuan/mt. Subsequently, copper prices fluctuated rangebound. During the day session, copper prices rose and then pulled back, reaching a low of 70,030 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 70,070 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. Open interest reached 3,959 lots, an increase of 520 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 3,744 lots. On the macro side, Trump stated that if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached within 10 days, the US will impose additional tariffs on Russia. The advancement of the current tariff policy still faces uncertainties. On the fundamental side, LME inventory increased by 9,225 mt to 136,850 mt. Despite continuous inventory buildup over several days, domestic and overseas inventory levels remain in a low range overall, with supply slightly tight and the market showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is worth noting that at this week's US Fed meeting, there may be a situation where two governors hold differing opinions for the first time in over 30 years: Trump-appointed governors Waller and Bowman support an interest rate cut, while Powell and others prefer to wait and see. Regardless of the outcome, differences may be difficult to avoid, and the final result of the meeting will need to be closely tracked in the later stage.

The SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,930 yuan/mt. If based on the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract price of 70,070 yuan/mt, its after-tax price is 79,179 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper contract is -249, with the spread remaining inverted and increasing from the previous day.